March 3, 2003, 8 a.m.
ZONED OUT
It might not be so bad this week after all. Oh, there'll be occasional precipitation and fluctuating temperatures, but it looks right now as if the pattern is modifying enough to keep ice/snow out of the picture.
It looks like we're settling into a "zonal pattern" this week. That simply means that the storm track glides from west to east with few bumps and dips, keeping the bulk of the cold air in Canada and the warm air to our south. That means much of the week should be about right for the season, with highs in the 40s and 50s and lows in the 30s, except for a couple of mornings when it may be a bit colder behind some brief cold shots.
While the zonal jet stream will zip storm systems west to east across the country, the lack of dipping and diving means the different air masses don't mix much and that prevents big storms from forming. So lots of little shots of rain this week. Kinda damp and drizzly at times without flooding rains or snow, except maybe a few snow showers in the higher mountain areas to our west.
I still think with all that snowpack and cold air in Canada, and all the moisture-laden storms coming off the Pacific, this winter is due for one more snow threat before spring arrives. But this week, while not exactly springlike, should not be plagued by more of that infernal sleet either.
Feb. 28, 2003, 1:20 p.m.
ON AND ON AND ON AND ON
I wish I could write this and tell you that winter was going to break and it was going to be 70 degrees next week. I like snow -- love it, I would darn well say -- but the repetitive pattern of these little snow/ice things has worn me out. It's time for spring.
So I'll just get to the bad news right off the bat: Next week could end up being a near carbon copy of this one. At the least, we get several days of cool damp rainy weather. But with an Arctic front getting hung up across the southern U.S., signs that cold air is going to build deep across Canada, and yet more Pacific energy marching across the South in succession, we could be again setting ourselves up for day after day of snow/ice teases.
I'm getting sick of it. You just wanna tell the jet stream to give us one big snowstorm, get it out of its system, and get on with spring.
This constant drizzle of messy ice/sleet/snow events is wracking our nerves.
The "big 'un" is still possible with so many pieces of energy and so much moisture in this pattern. In some ways, the first big storm that clocked D.C. and northward on Feb. 16-17 broke the old cold pattern. Maybe one more would shatter it entirely and allow warm breezes to return.
The weekend doesn't look bad, some rain, but well above freezing to melt the muck. Get out and enjoy ice-free roads while they last.
Feb. 27, 2003, 6:20 a.m.
PECK, PECK, PECK ON MY WINDOW
I awoke to sounds of pecking on my window, which can only mean one thing: more sleet. You mean, we didn't get enough of that last time around?
Sleet and freezing rain today, probably changing back to snow tonight. Could be a serious icing situation in many areas. Maybe another 1-3 inches of mixed muck on top of the 2-4 inches of snow common across Southwest Virginia after yesterday's indecisive on-again, off-again, here-heavy, there-light snow.
The biggest chunk of this multi-part upper air dynamo finally arrives tonight. We've only been dealing with its little siblings for two days. The bigger storm will lift a deeper layer of Gulf moisture over a thinner layer of Arctic air, and that's why we're now in the icy stuff instead of the fluffy stuff.
It will eventually trigger a low pressure system on the East coast, and later this evening that may pull enough cold air back down -- with help from the cold pool of air with upper level low itself -- to turn us back to snow. It's like some kind of demented multi-act drama that you need a program just to understand what's going on.
The bad news is that the subtropical jet stream and the polar jet stream may go into yet another twisted wrestling match next week. The government's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center is alluding to that possibility in its long-range forecasts for next week. I quote: "An Arctic boundary then develops from the lower Ohio Valley to the southern Mid Atlantic Days 6. Thicknesses appear cold enough for stripes of snow rippling eastward through the Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic to the north of this boundary Tueesday-Wednesday. ... There may be additional, hard-to-time surges of precipitation along the Gulf Coast region north of the old polar front Monday Day 5 into Wednesday Day, and these could bring significant precipitation."
That sounds awful familiar.
But let's don't worry about next week yet. Keep it slow and steady on the roads today. Or better yet, stay off them if you can.
Feb. 26, 2003, 8:20 a.m.
FIRST, SECOND ACTS GET HIGHER REVIEWS
OK, so we got a little bit more than just a "few flakes" last night. The ground is white most places this morning. Truth is, we're going to see a lot more than what we expected earlier for today and tonight too.
The first disturbance in this chain came in farther north than expected, resulting in a ground-whitening snow across the area during the evening. Up to 2 inches in some places.
The second disturbance is going to be a bigger deal than we had anticipated, too, spreading Gulf of Mexico moisture into our deepened cold air this afternoon and evening. That's one reason the National Weather Service has put us under a winter storm warning for the expectation of 4-6 inches of snow by Thursday AM (2-3 today, 2-3 tonight). That sounds reasonable to me so I won't quibble much, though my personal call would be 3-5.
And only then does the big storm arrive. Many questions swirl about its track. A more southerly route means snow, a more northerly track means ice. Right now, we're right on the bubble, probably in a snow to ice zone.
Models have been all over the place, but I'm thinking this one goes more a bit more east and out to sea than previous storms, which would probably be more of a snow event here. But it's such a close call. Even today, a little warming upstairs would switch us into the dreaded sleet/ice.
Drive carefully and stay tuned.
Feb. 25, 2003, 6:20 a.m.
WINTER GETS OFF ITS DUFF
Now you didn't think winter would just lay down on the tarmac after getting knocked down by spring over the weekend?
Not this winter. Some of its recent predecessors have been sissies, but this one's not going to get bullied around.
The epic struggle between the subtropical jet stream and the polar jet stream continues as we prepare for yet another round of winter precipitation in our area. And as is usual in these situations, it's a messy call involving snow, sleet, and freezing rain.
The subtropical jet stream is bringing a whole chain of vigorous storm systems out of the Pacific our way. One feisty disturbance that has turned my homeland of Arkansas white with snow this morning slips by just south of us tonight. Extreme southern Virginia might squeak out a couple of inches with this one. North Carolina will get a little more. Maybe a few flakes for Roanoke. Maybe.
But after that comes a bigger show for, yes once again, a Thursday. The cold air dams up against the Appalachians again, and the moisture streams in from the southwest. A familiar scenario this winter.
At this early juncture, looks like it will start as snow and then change to sleet and freezing rain. Another "crunchy snow." Still a bit early to get carried away, but the potential is there for big problems, though probably not on as large a scale of the Feb. 16-17 storm. I doubt anyone, even north of us, gets 3 feet of snow. Somebody somewhere may get a foot. Biggest fears locally would be if duration or intensity of freezing rain is longer than expected, creating ice storm concerns.
Early guess: 2-3 inches of snow/sleet, some ice on top. A mess.
If that's not enough, there's more storm systems lined up after that, and the threat of an Arctic air intrusion as well. Many meteorologists were beginning to write off the winter pattern a few days ago, but new model guidance is showing increasingly that early March will be much like January and February except that it will be wetter ... and potentially whiter.
By the way ... Carvins Cove is full. Those 47 of you out of 221 voters who guessed February in the poll are correct! Seems doubtful we'll need this contest in '03.
Copyright 2003